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Pacific Crest: Another Forecast for Industry Development in 2021
No sooner had the ink dried after the publication of reports by SIA and Future Horizons, when another forecast of the development of events for 2021 was released, this time by Pacific Crest, which we mentioned among analysts who follow the microprocessor market. The company echoes a crowd of observers predicting a semiconductor industry downturn in 2021 and expects the semiconductor chip market to shrink by 4% this year. For 2021, according to preliminary forecasts, sales growth compared to 2021 amounted to 28%. CAPEX is also expected to decrease by 12% in 2021.
In total for 2021, it is expected to achieve sales of 205 billion. dollars. In 2021, according to preliminary data, semiconductors were sold in the amount of about 213 billion. dollars. If you count by the piece, then in 2021 will be sold almost 434 billion. chips, which is 0.7% more than in 2021, while last year chips were sold 17.5% more than in 2021.
The weighted average cost of one microcircuit, thus, in 2021 will be $ 0.47, and in 2021 – $ 0.50, which is 9.4% more than in 2021.
According to Pacific Crest, the decline in the semiconductor chip market will be due to such macroeconomic factors as high oil prices, increased interest rates and increased credit control in China. The accumulation of finished goods, which led to the market decline at the end of 2021, will also play a noticeable role in 2021, but by the third quarter it will be minimal.